Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse just raised his Clarity Act prediction to 90%. Following today’s White House meeting between crypto executives and banking representatives, Garlinghouse told Fox Business he sees an 80-90% chance the bill clears Congress by April.
Prediction markets agree. Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 spiked to 90% today before settling around 70%. That’s up from roughly 53-60% just weeks ago. The market is pricing in momentum.
NEW: 🏛️🇺🇸 #Ripple CEO @bgarlinghouse says there's now a 90% chance the CLARITY Act clears Congress by April.
— Bitcoin.com News (@BitcoinNews) February 19, 2026
Garlinghouse discusses today's market structure meeting at the White House and the importance of crypto legislation in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/cPbyurjfvJ
The White House Push
Today marked the third closed-door session at the White House aimed at resolving the stalemate blocking the Clarity Act. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, attended alongside executives from Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, and representatives from traditional banking.
The core dispute: stablecoin yields. Banks want to prohibit interest payments on dollar-backed tokens like USDC, arguing they threaten traditional deposit bases. Crypto firms counter that yield is a feature, not a bug, and banning it would kneecap innovation.
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal described the talks as “constructive and cooperative,” noting that participants made progress. No final compromise emerged, but the tone shifted. Both sides are narrowing differences ahead of a March 1 deadline.
The Crypto Council for Innovation called the session a step toward “a framework that serves American consumers while reinforcing US competitiveness.”
What the Clarity Act Does
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support. It establishes the first comprehensive federal framework for crypto regulation in the United States:
- Jurisdiction split: CFTC oversees digital commodities and spot markets. SEC retains authority over primary market offerings and securities
- Token classification: Provides legal certainty on when a token is a commodity versus a security, ending regulation-by-enforcement
- Disclosure requirements: Sets standards for capital raising and post-sale treatment
- Illicit finance provisions: Applies sanctions frameworks to centralized intermediaries
- No federal CBDC: Prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency
The bill’s passage would resolve years of jurisdictional ambiguity that has driven crypto companies offshore and left US investors in legal limbo.
The Senate Bottleneck
Despite House passage, the Senate has stalled. Two committees must advance the bill: Agriculture (which voted yes in January along partisan lines) and Banking (which delayed its markup indefinitely).
The delay came after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly objected to provisions restricting stablecoin rewards and expanding SEC authority at the CFTC’s expense. Armstrong warned the exchange could not support the legislation as written.
That opposition forced negotiators back to the table. Today’s White House meeting was the result.
Senator Bernie Moreno, speaking at a World Liberty Financial forum at Mar-a-Lago yesterday, echoed Garlinghouse’s timeline: “by April.” The Trump administration has made crypto legislation a priority, with advisers Patrick Witt and David Sacks driving the process.
Why April Matters
The March 1 deadline is procedural. If negotiators resolve the stablecoin yield dispute, the Senate Banking Committee can schedule its markup. From there, floor votes in both chambers and reconciliation could realistically wrap by late April.
That timeline assumes continued momentum. The prediction market spike reflects growing confidence, but 70% is not certainty. Democratic support in the Senate remains uncertain, and the stablecoin compromise hasn’t been finalized.
Still, the trajectory is clear. A year ago, comprehensive crypto legislation seemed impossible. Six months ago, it passed the House. Today, the White House is personally mediating between banks and crypto firms to get it across the finish line.
Garlinghouse put it simply: the administration is pushing hard.
What Passage Would Mean
The Clarity Act would be the most significant crypto legislation in US history. It would:
- End the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement approach
- Give exchanges and token projects clear compliance pathways
- Allow US institutions to participate in digital asset markets with legal certainty
- Position the United States as the regulatory standard-setter globally
For years, the industry has operated in a gray zone. Projects launched offshore. Exchanges restricted US users. Institutions sat on the sidelines waiting for rules that never came.
Those rules are now one Senate vote away.
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