Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC. This regulatory approval allows the company to offer prediction markets to US customers, marking a significant expansion of Gemini’s service offerings. The license comes after a lengthy five-year application process that began in March 2020.
Through its affiliate Gemini Titan, LLC, the exchange plans to introduce event contracts where users can make predictions on future events by answering simple yes or no questions. This move positions Gemini at the forefront of regulated prediction market services in the United States and creates new opportunities for American traders in this emerging space.
Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman @CarolineDPham understands this vision and its importance. Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the @CFTC as a pro business, pro innovation… https://t.co/uNnMt8Gfcj
— Cameron Winklevoss (@cameron) December 10, 2025
How Gemini’s Prediction Markets Will Work
Gemini’s prediction markets will focus on event contracts that present straightforward binary outcomes. Users will trade on questions such as “Will Bitcoin exceed $200,000 by the end of the year?” or other event-based scenarios with definitive yes or no answers. These contracts will function as speculative instruments that harness collective wisdom to forecast outcomes.
US customers will soon access these prediction markets through Gemini’s web interface using USD funds from their existing Gemini accounts. The company also plans to add mobile app functionality for prediction market trading in the near future. This integration into Gemini’s existing platform creates a seamless experience for current users while potentially attracting new customers interested in prediction markets.
Unlike unregulated prediction markets that have operated in legal gray areas, Gemini’s CFTC-approved platform provides a compliant way for US residents to participate in this type of trading. This regulatory clarity removes significant barriers that have previously limited the growth of prediction markets in the United States.
The Significance of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets serve as powerful forecasting tools that leverage collective intelligence to predict future events. These markets allow participants to express their beliefs about outcomes by taking financial positions. When many informed participants trade, prediction markets often generate more accurate forecasts than individual experts.
Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President, emphasized the potential scale of prediction markets, suggesting they could grow to rival traditional capital markets in size. This perspective highlights the company’s ambitious vision for this sector. The ability to gather crowd wisdom through market mechanisms makes prediction markets valuable for forecasting everything from economic indicators to political outcomes.
For traders, prediction markets offer new opportunities to profit from accurate forecasting abilities across diverse topics. For Gemini, this represents a significant competitive advantage in the US market where few regulated alternatives exist for prediction market trading.
Regulatory Milestone for Crypto Industry
The CFTC’s approval of Gemini’s DCM license reflects an evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency companies in the United States. This development creates a precedent for how prediction markets can operate within existing regulatory frameworks. Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini’s CEO, characterized the approval as the end of a regulatory process and the beginning of a new chapter for the company.
As one of the first major cryptocurrency exchanges to receive this type of license, Gemini gains a first-mover advantage in the regulated US prediction market space. The company will need to balance innovation with compliance as they develop this new service offering. Their success or failure could influence how other crypto companies approach similar regulatory processes.
This milestone comes during a period of significant change in cryptocurrency regulation. Gemini’s ability to navigate the complex regulatory environment demonstrates its commitment to operating within legal frameworks while still pursuing innovative financial products.
As prediction markets become available to US customers through Gemini’s platform, this development may encourage broader adoption of these forecasting tools. For the cryptocurrency industry, regulated prediction markets represent another step toward mainstream financial integration and legitimacy.
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